A 2C Increase Means We Are All Dead by 2050!!!

A 2C Increase Means We Are All Dead by 2050 or close to it, according to the alarmists. Yet the planet has been warmer than that not only in the recent human past, but also in the geological deep time past. It’s not warmth that kills, it’s cold.

Seems to me the AGW alarmists are hedging their bets as to whom it will blame for an economic collapse. In the Huffington Post Christopher Reyer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research claimed that by 2100:

I guess it should be between three and four degrees hotter. We used to think that we were headed for +8°C, but that will never happen. We are not even on track for +6°C because economies will be collapsing long before we get there. We know that after +2°C, dangerous things start happening, and we start passing crucial tipping points, like the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse, which has reportedly already begun.

According to Reyer we don’t have to wait that long, as by 2050:

What will a two degrees warmer world, which we seem likely to inhabit by 2050, look like?

Two degrees is not a picnic either. Imagine events like the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Russian heat wave which had repercussions on the global wheat market, and Hurricane Katrina, all of them happening simultaneously everywhere in the world.

Read more here.

But what exactly does a 2C warmer world look like? What the IPCC is referring to is this bogus global average temperature. But what is global average temperature? Well, mathematically, you take the daily TMax add it to the daily TMin, and divide by two for every station on the planet. That gives you TAvg. Then for each year you add up all those averages and divide by 365 to get a global yearly average.

It’s bogus because it tells us nothing about what is physically happening. It doesn’t even tell us if the planet is warming up at all.

Let’s do a little quick math.

Compare the two days for each hour. The TAvg for Day 1 is 16.5C. But when you add up the hours of the actual temp you get an average of just 13.1C. This off the top shows that TAvg is a misleading number. The highest possible temp on any given day may only last an hour. Same with TMin but the accumulation of the hours divided by 24 gives us the truer heat content of the atmosphere.

Now what happens when the night temp doesn’t fall as much, but the daytime stays exactly the same? TAvg goes up a whole degree. Where as the hourly average goes up only 0.4C.

Take the yearly situation. The yearly TAvg can go up if winters are not as cold, with no change in the summer at all.

In fact, a 2000 paper, Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Canada During the 20th Century, found exactly that.

Like other parts of the world, Canada has not become hotter (no increase in higher quantiles of maximum temperature), but has become less cold.

They concluded the paper with:

Examining the areas affected by abnormal and extreme temperature confirmed the above analysis. It also suggested that the probability distribution of minimum temperature has shifted with a higher mean but only the left-hand side of maximum temperature distribution has been shifted upward. This indicates that southern Canada has not become hotter but less cold.

So let’s see, a trend towards winter temps going from –20C to –15 is somehow bad? A shorter milder winter, with a longer growing season, is somehow bad? Using less fossil fuels to heat our homes is somehow bad?

This is all nonsense anyway. No one can predict the future, not even if or when an economic crash happens.

Solar scientists are saying, as we enter solar cycle 25, we will be in for 20-30 years of global cooling, some say as much as 50 years, a return to the conditions of the Little Ice Age which killed millions in Europe from starvation as crops failed.

The flaw in the end of the world is coming because it will get warmer is that we’ve had warmer climate in the past.

This graph shows the world temps, from proxy data, for the last 2500 years. One can clearly see we were warmer many times in the past. A review of a recent paper looking at the last 4000 years showed:

The result of this effort was a temperature history that compares well with trends that previously had been developed for China and Europe. And again, very briefly, it revealed the occurrence of a relatively long cold period from approximately 1920 BC to 30 AD, which was followed by the Roman Warm Period (about 30-360 AD), which was followed by the Dark Ages Cold Period (about 360-760 AD), which was followed by the Medieval Warm Period (about 760-1300 AD), which was followed by the Little Ice Age (about 1300-1850 AD). Then, last of all, the record depicts the gradual development of the Current Warm Period, which at this point in time appears to be at its peak, having not risen further than where it is now over the past couple of decades.

The alarmists will claim that the Medieval Warm Period was local to Europe only and wasn’t warmer (note the image with Gore at the top shows no MWP). Yet this database of science papers from all over the world show that the MWP was just as warm, if not warmer, than today, and was world wide all the way down to Antarctica.

Going back even further, looking at the last 500 million years, polar ice caps were rare. Tropical conditions up to the Arctic Circle was normal. Palmtrees grew in the Antarctic some 50 million years ago (it was at its present latitude). At that same period, the Arctic was lush with life being ice free.

Some 55 million years ago, during the early Eocene Epoch, ELLESMERE Island in Canada’s eastern High Arctic was warm and ice-free. It was also home to lush lowland forests and swamps inhabited by alligators, giant tortoises, snakes, lizards, and a host of mammals that included primates, tapirs, hippo-like Coryphodon, and large, rhino-like brontotheres. In the nearby ocean, clams and snails thrived. This extinct environment, well above the ARCTIC CIRCLE, combined a warm temperate climate with a typical Arctic light regime of bright summers and dark winters.

Yet, in spite of this geological evidence, the a priori claim is that a warmer world will be catastrophic for humans and will cause our extinction within 100 years:

This has been the hot (pun) topic for the past couple of years now. There are many skeptics, but scientists insist that the effects of global warming are real and have the evidence to support their claim. The ice caps are melting, which could wipe out a lot of arctic wildlife and raise sea levels to make some cities uninhabitable. Along with the global meltdown, the increased temperatures could make some land masses uninhabitable as well, all that needs to happen is a very minute increase in temperature and we are well on our way to accomplishing that nefarious goal.

Again, these are so far into the future none of us will be alive to laugh at this bogus claim.

We may indeed be heading for an economic collapse sooner rather than later. Should we do so, you can bet the leftists/socialists will claim it was because of global warming, or capitalism, or democracy, or anything else they can think of. Heaven forbid they admit their own policies of government deficit spending, accumulated debt, and dependence of voters on government would be to blame. Never.

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